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‘SOFT’ FACTORS

The first thing to consider about investing isn’t technical at all. EPS, P/E, P/S, MA and EMA, RSI and dozens of other indicators are all important. But start at the beginning by looking not outside, but in.

What kind of investor are you? Young with a little capital to risk but a large earnings potential over several decades? Retired, or near it, with a healthy savings but living on limited income?

And, more psychologically, what’s your temperament for research and your tolerance for risk? Are you comfortable with statistics or intuitive? Are you detail oriented, or tend to look at the big picture? Not mutually exclusive categories, to be sure.

All these factors will influence your investment strategy. You do have a strategy, right? If not, go back to square one and develop that first.

‘HARD’ FACTORS

PEG – Projected Earnings Growth

Traditionally, Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio was a helpful indicator of value. Low price, relative to large earnings (per share) suggested a company’s share price would likely rise in the future. But that was before thousands of new companies entered the public markets and when investing meant buying Coca-Cola stock.

But P/E isn’t entirely useless, even today. Just supplement it with a little more information to calculate the PEG – Projected Earnings Growth.

Calculate PEG by taking the P/E and dividing it by the projected growth in earnings. For example, a stock with a P/E of 20 and projected earning growth next year of 10% would have a PEG of 2 (20/10 = 2). The lower the number the less you’re paying for a unit of future earnings growth. Therefore, a company with a high P/E may still be a value if it has a high projected earnings.

Of course, the key is getting accurate projections. While no one can predict with certainty, many Internet sites provide those numbers and over time, with diligence, you can find one you trust.

Just as deciding to buy is, in small part, finding a large PEG stock, electing a time to sell means estimating when PEG is likely to take a turn downward. So, tracking PEG over time in the form of a simple chart should be a weekly (or more often) task on your research list.

ROE – Return On Equity

Some companies can make silk purses out of pigs ears, others couldn’t make a profit if they were given Apple’s engineering and marketing teams for free. Return on Equity is one measure of how well a company uses its assets to produce earnings. (By the way, silk comes from worms, not pigs.)

Easy to calculate, simply divide Net Income by Book Value (assets minus liabilities). Both numbers needed are easy to obtain from Internet sites. Three percent is low, 15% is healthy – but be sure to compare to other companies in the same economic sector, and track the number over the long term.

Obviously, when projected ROE is high (based on historical trend) you want to buy. Timing the sell is a matter of estimating when ROE is trending downward.

Some factors to consider for the latter involve major mergers which look to be unwise (HP acquiring Compaq is one example), major technology or management changes (this can be positive or negative), lawsuits initiated or settled, and general economic factors influencing that company more than others.

Continually add to your database and your toolkit. Track the numbers and add new numbers to track. MA – moving averages and RSI – Relative Strength Indicator are two of the more common technical indicators used, for example. After you’re comfortable with those, seek out some of the methods of quantifying risk.

And don’t forget to develop that strategy. Tools are useless if you don’t know what you want to do with them.

For more please see trend trading system review and trend trading.

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Probably you know by now that the big boys don’t play nice. In the stock market, institutional and other investors with large sums have much more influence on events than the average trader. One way they do that is through the use of something called ‘program trading’, the purchase (or sale) of a group of shares, usually by automated buy/sell orders.

Originally the term had little to do with ‘computer program’. Program Trading got its name when index funds and other institutional investors embarked on large-scale trading to replicate a stock index. Before long, clever statistical analysts joined hands with even more clever arbitrageurs to try to ‘beat’ the market through the use of sophisticated trading algorithms, assisted by (then) new, high-speed computer programs.

Fundamental analysis met technical analysis and introduced themselves to software. The rest is rather bumpy history. In one famous case, though some studies deny this, it may have contributed heavily to the well-known Black Monday of October 1987 when the market dropped by over 20% in one day.

While not the largest drop in history (a larger percent decline occurred in 1914 and later a larger point drop, in 2001), nevertheless within one day, 500 billion dollars evaporated from the Dow Jones index. And, the event continued in markets around the world. Hong Kong shares fell over 45% (some say this happened before the U.S. decline – accounts differ) and London over 26%.

Out of favor for, oh say maybe a day, program trading continued – albeit after a few software tweaks. New SEC rules were devised and major market players altered thresholds to slow or halt trading when certain percentage declines are reached.

While the NYSE defines a program trade as a basket of 15 stocks or having a total value of $1M (or more), trades can be executed in small lots (100-300 shares, for example). In theory, this allows orders to be completed before other investors get wise, and helps avoid large price movements before positions are solidified or liquidated.

As finance professors and large-firm specialists develop ever more sophisticated methods of taking advantage of small price discrepancies across global markets, program trading becomes ever more complex. In many cases, the individuals involved don’t themselves understand well the consequences of implementing a particular strategy.

Program trading now comprises over 50% of NYSE volume on average and it can introduce large swings in a few stocks or large portions of the market. Clearly, the big boys wouldn’t bother unless they believed – backed now by decades of studies – that there was an advantage in using the technique.

But whether villain or savior, it’s here to stay. Over 50% of the volume on one exchange that trades over 1.6 billion shares a day is a huge amount of arbitrage activity. That effect can work against the average investor or for him, but only if included in a trading strategy that pays attention to where those trades are going.

For more please see ETFtrendtrading.com and What Are the Largest ETF Companies?.

Brought to you by Free ETF Trend Trading Review And Information.

As with gamblers in Las Vegas so it is with stock investments, ‘everybody’s got a system’. The goal of research, however, is to make the activity a lot less like gambling and a lot more like investment.

For those without the time or temperament to carry out research themselves, there are full time research services available – for a fee, of course. Full-Service brokerages, such as Merrill Lynch and other large, well-established firms offer research as part of their value to clients.

But there are firms, both traditional and the newer online variety, that offer research without the advice available from the broker. Whether the research (and the advice) are worth what it costs is an ongoing debate.

For those who see research not as a necessary evil or time-consuming burden, but as part of the process or even an adventure, there are now more sources than could be used in a lifetime.

Starting with the source of data is always a safe bet, since it’s the most unbiased, thoroughly audited information around. That source is the legally required filings of individual publicly traded companies.

In the U.S. those are 10-K’s – more or less equivalent to lengthy annual reports – which can be viewed or downloaded from the SEC’s website (www.sec.gov). (10-Q’s are filed quarterly, 8-K’s for significant financial changes in between.) Other countries have their equivalents, such as the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission (HKSRC).

In those reports you’ll find recent (as of the filing date) financial data about income, expectations, competition and lines of business, current senior management listings and other information useful to those inclined toward Fundamental Analysis. 

Quarterly reports and annual reports are sent automatically to share holders, even those with only one share (though they’re usually traded in lots of 100 or more.) But, they’re often available free by calling or emailing the Investment Relations department; after all, companies want you to buy their stock. They contain the same factual data as 10-K’s and 10-Q’s but occasionally wording differs, for those interested in subtle details.

For a modest annual or one-time fee, a blizzard of chart data is available that matches any produced by the in-house research departments of the large brokerages. (Sometimes they’re produced by the same people.)

Newsletters are another potentially good source of information, though opinions about the market vary so widely that researching whom to believe takes as much time and care as researching individual stocks. Sometimes they’re a few dollars per year, sometimes many hundreds – and price is no indicator of quality here.

One direct source of one kind of information are the in-person, on TV, or on the Internet interviews of company senior managers, usually by one or a panel of analysts.

CEOs, CFOs, and others often talk to the financial press and brokerage share analysts to give their views on where their company stands, what challenges they face, and where they expect to be in the near to long-term future. Often they’re asked about specific pending lawsuits or legislation and to assess its potential impact.

Of course, executives have an interest in painting a rosy picture, but analysts have often heard it all and are very adept at keeping the ’spin factor’ to a minimum. If nothing else, it tells you what the executives want you to believe, which in itself is useful.

Even armed with nothing more than an inexpensive online trading account, the average investor has access to charts of historical and current data, future expectations, and a wide variety of statistical information which would keep even the most technically inclined busy for quite some time.

Be sure to use it all, or as much as you can absorb in the time available, when formulating a trading strategy. And remember, opinions ‘on the street’ are a dime a dozen – including mine.

For more please see etf trend reviews and What Are ETF Trends.

Brought to you by What Is The Best Trend Trading System.

Stock picking is akin to weather prediction – no one can predict with certainty five hours from now if the price will rise or fall, much less five years from now.

Nevertheless, there are indicators that help to reduce the risk and increase the odds of profiting over the long term. After all, historically stocks have returned over 10%, as measured by the growth of the S&P 500.

The first step is to get educated. Learn not only about dividends yields and earnings per share, but also some basic accounting. Reported figures have an air of authority but the sad fact remains that those numbers are arrived at, in part, by accounting methods which are not cut and dried. 

The Enron case (case in which the executives of Enron manipulated their earnings figures to appear to be much more
successful than they were) is extreme, but even ordinary procedures involve judgment calls on the part of financial officers and auditors.

Next, commit to continuing research about stocks both inside and outside your intended portfolio, and update it as you buy and sell. There’s a broad spectrum between exact prediction and throwing darts blindly. In the long run, those who do their homework do far better and almost all day traders lose money.

Research both prospective buys and intended sells. Many investors put considerable time and effort into analyzing a buy, but then only watch for some price to be reached in order to sell. Knowing when to sell is just as important, and a target should be selected before the stock is bought.

RESEARCHING BUYS

Obtain the latest, and some historical, financial statements. The SEC provides these free (www.sec.gov) in their EDGAR database, but other exchanges have similar arrangements.

Analyze the quarterly statements covering two to three years, looking for EPS (earnings per share) and revenue trends. Calculate dividend yields, if the company pays dividends.

Compare the company’s P/E (Price to Earnings) ratio to others in the same economic sector. Look at P/S (Price to Sales) ratios, too. Sales growth is easier to predict than earnings and less volatile than P/E ratios. 

Examine general economic factors. Interest rates affect stock prices as well as bonds (though less directly), since almost every company borrows money. Even when they don’t, their competitors, suppliers, and customers do. Interest charges reduce profits for all but the lenders, for whom it’s income. 

Even when researching a bank, though, high interest rates increase short-term profits, but can reduce the number of loans and cause certain current ones to be repaid early. High interest rates aren’t necessarily good for banks either, therefore.

Use some of the more common technical indicators, such as MA (moving averages) and RSI (Relative Strength Index, which compares the number of days a stock finishes up versus down). An RSI of 70, or above, for example, does tend to indicate a stock which is overbought and due for a fall in price.

RESEARCHING SELLS

Pick a target price, which amounts to deciding how much profit (in dollars or percentage terms) you seek then sell at that price, unless your continuing research has turned up significant new information.

Consider selling if the price has dropped substantially or remained unchanged for several months. Losses are hard to bear, but consider that you can’t always pick winners and while you’re invested in one stock, you’re forgoing potential profit from another. That profit could help reduce or more than make up for the loss from the sale.

Continue to monitor the company’s fundamentals by obtaining updated filings. Re-evaluate them by updating earnings trend calculations, significant management or general economic changes.

You can ease the difficulty of performing calculations (which is a useful exercise at least once) by finding Internet sites that provide objective data and go easy on the “here’s how to pick winners” sales talk.

And remember, ‘on the street’ opinions are a dime a dozen – including mine.

For more please see forex trend trading and What Types of ETFs Are There?.

Brought to you by etf trends.

Once upon a time there was no Internet. OK, now take a deep breath. It’s alright because there is one now. For several decades (roughly from 1960 to 1990), large companies such as Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley were able to trade among themselves electronically, but these trades took place over private networks.

In 1978, the Intermarket Trading System (ITS) opened for business, providing an electronic link between the NYSE and competing exchanges, enabling brokers to access several markets. But still, only for the ‘in-crowd’.

Then in 1994, Aufhauser Securities (now owned by Ameritrade) created the first Internet trading system. As Internet trading grew dramatically, companies developed systems allowing individual investors to not only trade, but access information once available only to those large companies.

The world has never been the same since.

Trading commissions fell to negligible territory. Twenty years ago, it was common to pay $100 or more on a $1000 trade; online trading fees are less than $10 today. Yet, despite the considerable drop in prices, brokerages are making enormous profits, thanks to the increase in trading volume.

Peak volume in 1824 on the NYSE was 380,000 shares, though less than 10,000 was the norm in 1835. Unfair comparison, too far back? Fine. In 1992 average daily volume was 200 million shares. Today, it’s over 1.6 Billion. Peaks as high as 3 billion have been seen.

Along with lower prices and increased volume, trading times have shortened from an hour or half a day, to a few seconds. And you wonder why the floor brokers are always yelling at one another on the stock exchange.

Research, once available only to specialized analysts in large brokerage firms, is now accessible to the average investor with an online trading account – often for free. And the research itself has grown from simple Earnings Per Share and Dividend Yield data to a bewildering array of Relative Strength Indexes (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Bollinger Bands and others even more arcane.

Networked trading, along with other computer technology, has made exchanges international and in some cases global. Only a few years ago the Amsterdam, Brussels, Lisbon and Paris exchanges merged into Euronext – a single trading exchange for countries with widely differing backgrounds. Efforts continue to bring the London share Exchange into partnership with Euronext or FWB (Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse, the major German exchange), or both.

As a consequence of the emergence of merging exchanges, trading has improved not only for members but the individual investor as well. It isn’t just citizens of the countries involved in Euronext who can trade there. Exchanges the world over are now open to almost any investor anywhere. Now anyone, not just London’s professional traders, can enjoy the effects of sleep deprivation monitoring and trading on exchanges that cross every time zone on the globe.

All this change, while difficult to absorb, has one overriding goal and result – you can now make (or lose) a lot more money a lot faster, in a lot more places, than your father. That ought to produce at least a few interesting family dinner conversations.

For more please see ETF trend trading and http://free-credit-reports-site.com/how-to-get-your-free-credit-scores/.